सोमवार, 10 अक्टूबर 2016

(Kaisa Vikas? Kiska Vikas?)

Development for the Rich

(Kaisa Vikas? Kiska Vikas?)


SECTION-1:
 INTRODUCTION                The Indian economy grew much faster in the 1980s than between 1950 and 1980. But this was driven by government expenditure through domestic and external borrowing, along with opening up to imports. The result was a severe balance of payments crisis. In 1991 when the crisis reached its peak, the government took massive loans from the IMF and World Bank, even though other options such as taxing upper-income groups and restricting imports were also available.
This period was marked by the dominance of international finance capital and the collapse of the Soviet Union as a countervailing force to the Western countries, which led to a serious questioning of self-reliant development as pursued by India and many other developing countries. Major policy changes followed. Under pressure from the IMF and the World Bank as well as the US and other Western powers, successive governments in India embarked on the path of liberalization, privatization and globalization (LPG) and adopted the ideology of neo-liberalism.

Neo-liberalism                        Liberalization involves loosening of government control over the economy in favour of market forces. Government investment is gradually withdrawn, while private capital, and specially foreign capital, are encouraged in all sectors. This implies that the broader social good is no longer the guiding principle, but expansion of the private sector into all parts of the economy including public services is assumed to be for the greater public benefit by definition, even though evidence may show that only some sections actually benefit.
Privatization relates not only to government selling public sector units or shares in State-owned enterprises to private companies, thus gradually dismantling the public sector, but also opening up all sectors including education, health, infrastructure and so on to private players, in the belief that running these services as profit-making entities is better than promoting social well-being through government action. Experience the world over shows that this leads to reduced access of the lower-income groups to education, health, energy, transport and other public services and infrastructure.
Globalization, the third element of LPG, means opening up the country to all sorts of imports at low taxes and with few government controls as regards items, quantity etc.  Even more importantly, it means removing restrictions on the free movement of capital into and out of India. This is the single most important aspect of LPG reforms, and the one with the most disastrous consequences. It has immediate impact on the government’s ability to forge and implement an independent policy, since foreign investors can always threaten to take their funds out of the country if it adopts policies they do not like.
LPG calls for minimal taxes, government regulation and government expenditure.  This has serious consequences for the government’s welfare programmes and investment policies. Since 1991, successive governments in India have cut back social welfare programmes and public investments, much to the detriment of lower-income groups and sharply widening social and economic inequality.

Impact of Neo-liberal Policies                      Supporters of neo-liberal policies point to the strong GDP growth in India after the 1980s.  The average rate of growth over the entire neo-liberal period has been over 6 percent, even going up to 8% over occasional short periods. This is no doubt impressive during a period when most developed countries have shown lower growth and only China has registered regular high GDP growth of 9-10 percent over an extended period of 30 years.
The issue, however, is not just GDP growth, but the nature and composition of growth, and its implications for different socio-economic classes. First, it is the service sector that is growing most rapidly. The share of the manufacturing sector in GDP has been stagnating at about 16 percent of GDP, whereas the share of agriculture and allied activities such as forestry and fishing, and mining and quarrying, has declined to around 17 per cent. This has serious implications for job creation. The services sector contributes 58 percent of GDP while its share of employment is only 30 percent or lower.
Job creation has been the lowest during the neo-liberal period than in the preceding decades. Moreover, almost all increase in employment has been in informal jobs that not only offer very low wages, but involve long working hours under poor conditions, no welfare benefits, and are completely insecure with poor labour rights.
The last two decades have seen huge and continuing distress in the agricultural sector and the rural economy. More than 300,000 farmers have committed suicide between 1997 and 2015. Growth in agriculture and food grain production has been the lowest since independence during the neo-liberal period, with the annual growth rate being just 0.6 per cent between 1995 and 2005. Agriculture and the rural economy have been devastated by the neo-liberal policies that include severely reduced subsidies to agricultural inputs, removal of restrictions on imports of agricultural produce, reduced credit flows,  sharply curtailed government expenditure on rural infrastructure including irrigation, agricultural research and extension services, and weakened food security by imposing a targeted public distribution system, excluding millions of the poor from access to food at affordable costs.
            Neo-liberal policies have also not made a significant impact on poverty in terms of its depth, severity and wide spread, even though governments have often claimed the contrary. Recent research shows that per capita income decreased between 1994 and 2005 in places located more than 5 km away from urban settlements, such regions accounting for over half the population of India. With the global economic crisis and its impact on the Indian economy, small increases in employment between 2005 and 2015, and continuing sharp cuts in subsidies, the extent of poverty is likely to have gone up in recent years.
Food insecurity is a widely prevalent condition in India. There has also been no significant reduction in malnutrition, and the indicators even show a worsening in some parts of the country especially among socially and economically vulnerable sections.

Inequality                   It is well known that India’s development over three decades of neo-liberal reform policies has been highly unequal. Reports have brought out that the net worth of India's billionaires has increased dramatically by 12 times in the past 15 years, enough to eliminate absolute poverty twice over in the country. Income inequality is also on the rise.  India is ranked fifth in terms of number of billionaires with 70 billionaires, 17 more than in 2013. Interestingly, India has a higher number of these super rich individuals than Germany, Switzerland, France and Japan. The combined wealth of the Indians billionaires comes to a staggering Rs.26 lakh crores ($390 billion)! 
With further informalization of the labour force, slow growth of employment, severe agrarian crisis and cutbacks in expenditures on social protection and food, fertiliser and energy subsidies, as well as the privatization and commercialization of education and health, inequality across social classes and across the rural-urban divide has increased significantly over the period of neo-liberal policies.
Besides income inequality, there are also the other axes of inequality such as gender, caste and rural/urban. In all these dimensions, the degree of inequality in terms of wealth, incomes and access to health and education have all increased substantially.
            Perhaps the most tragic outcome of neo-liberal policies in India has been rural distress and the worsening rural-urban divide. The deep problems in agriculture relate both to current neo-liberal policies and to the basic structure of agrarian relations in India characterised by continuing concentration of land holdings in fewer hands and increasing landlessness.

            Against the above background, one would have expected that the government’s development policies would be directed at reversing this trend of increasing social and economic inequality. The new government’s slogan of “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas” (i.e. development for all, with participation of all) may have given rise to expectations that steps to reduce these inequalities would be reduced.
            On the contrary, the key flagship development programmes of the government reveal its intention to promote greater development for the urban, better-off sections which can only worsen the inequalities noted above between rich and poor, urban and rural, and along social fault lines of caste, gender and region.
           
Flagship Development Programmes            The major development programmes being pursued by the present government follow the broad development pathway outlined above and closely follow the neo-liberal prescription.
The Case Studies in this Booklet would make clear how the development trajectory as represented by these flagship schemes are heavily tilted towards the better-off sections and the so-called “aspirational” middle-classes i.e. those upper-income sections of the middle classes who look forward to somehow achieving living standards and amenities like those in developed countries. Unfortunately, what these sections do not fully appreciate is that the few supposedly “world class” infrastructure or facilities that are created are, in most cases, either not really up to international standards or are doomed to remain islands of prosperity in the midst of grinding poverty, deprivation and lack of access with regard to amenities and public services such as for education, health, transport and energy for cooking, lighting, cooling or heating. Can such isolated examples of infrastructure or facilities really be considered “development,” if they are accessible only to a small upper-income segment and leave the rest of the population with little or no access to them? Are the rest of the population supposed to merely stare at these “wonders” from far away, and dream of some day actually being able to enjoy them? Is this really “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas” (“with all and development for all”)? 
The Case Studies also show that huge amounts of public money are being spent on these examples of lopsided “development,” while at the same time people of this country are told that there are no funds for expanding or providing quality education, or to provide health care to the masses? In all such cases, the State is rapidly withdrawing from these sectors, citing a shortage of funds, and opening the doors to the private sector including even foreign companies and multi-national corporations. Gradually even education and health are getting beyond the reach of the common man, while even the middle-classes are forced to turn towards private providers of services at ever-higher costs.
Neo-liberal economics, as dictated by the advanced countries and by multi-lateral agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF, demands that even though the poor cannot afford even rudimentary facilities or services, existing subsidies should be withdrawn and the very idea of subsidies, even for subsistence requirements, is wrong.  Yet at the very same time, there is no hesitation in extending all kinds of subsidies and support to corporations, industrialists, trading companies and the upper middle classes! It is well known, for example, that huge loans extended to private companies or prominent industrialists are lying unreturned, that massive so-called non-performing assets (NPA) which are in reality loan defaults exist and are mounting, and that such loans have often been secured through unfair means, without adequate collateral or necessary requirements. Similarly, enormous amounts of taxes are outstanding from corporations and prominent businessmen or other rich people. These are, in effect, subsidies to the rich, to the corporate class and to private companies while public expenditure for education, health and food and nutrition security is denied to the poor, lower-income groups and the toiling middle-classes.
The Case Studies in this Booklet, on Bullet Trains, Smart Cities, Regional Airports etc clearly bring out how massive public funds are being spent on high-value projects which will mainly benefit upper-income groups especially in urban areas. Such “development” will only worsen the already high degree of inequality that now characterize the Indian economy and society, making it one of the most unequal societies in the world. Is this the model of development that we want for India? Is this really “sab ka vikas” that the present Government promised when it sought the mandate of the people? Is this not, in fact, development for the rich?
No doubt some people will criticize the opinions expressed in this Booklet.  Those expected to benefit from such schemes will of course differ, and may not care if other sections do not benefit. But there will also be those who believe that a few show-case projects will make the Indian people proud of their nation’s achievements. And some sections of the aspirational middle-class may hope that even if only elite sections get benefits today, their own turn will come tomorrow, and soon others too will benefit. In reality, everybody knows that “trickle down” economics does not work. All over the world under neo-liberalism, the rich get richer, income disparities get wider, and concentration of wealth increases. Same applies to infrastructure or facilities, those created for the rich will remain with and for the rich only, and will not mean that similar or comparable facilities will be available for ordinary people.
The Case Studies show that the vision of “Development” being put forward is an elitist model designed to cater to and please upper-income urbanites and supposedly show the world that India is making rapid strides in economic growth, has the ability to spend vast amounts of money, and is catering to a growing upper middle-class whose substantial purchasing power should attract further foreign investment which has now become such a dominant goal of Indian economic policy.

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CASE STUDY 1: SMART CITIES, URBAN MIRAGE

            The Government has launched one of Prime Minister Modi’s pet programmes, namely to set up 100 “smart cities,” along with plans for upgrading 500 towns and cities (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation or AMRUT), and a pledge to provide housing for all by the 75th anniversary of Indian independence in 2022, a target that requires an improbable 20 million housing units.
Taken together, these programmes with an outlay of around Rs.2 lakh crores ($33 billion) including contributions of the States, with eventual expenditure many times that amount if the expected private sector investments are included, constitute perhaps the largest development initiative announced by this Government and highlights how important the programme is for this government and its leadership. The Scheme also underlines the government’s belief in urbanization as “an engine of economic growth,” especially of a certain kind. 
The government’s Concept Note released in November 2014 laid out the goal very clearly: the Note said that “smart cities” are meant to respond to increasing urban migration and to cater to the “neo middle class… [and its] aspiration of better living standards.” Clearly, there is no illusion about who is expected to benefit from this Scheme.
This new policy not only embodies an urbanization-led development pathway but also a vision of what these new centres of modernization and economic growth would be like. The “smart cities” programme outlines a specific urban model that other cities would aspire to, while requisite infrastructure would be laid in the 500 AMRUT cities as a stepping stone to become smart cities sometime in the future. Let us see what exactly this “smart city” model is and who would benefit from it.
             
Elitist Gated Enclaves           We have put the term “smart cities” within quotes is because the term is being used very differently in India compared to generally accepted terminology internationally. In developed countries, smart cities are those which already have good if not advanced infrastructure and which applies information and communication technologies (ICT) on top of this for more efficient use of resources and facilities especially energy, water, transportation, delivery of civic services, improved urban governance with greater interactive engagement of citizens.
Image result for smart cities india          In this sense, the use of the term “smart city” in India is clearly an over-reach. In the first place, as the government’s Concept Note makes clear, the 100 “smart cities” will not cover entire cities as they stand today, but only small, isolated enclaves within the city or, in a few cases, greenfield or newly built enclaves or “sub-cities” on the outskirts. While lip-service is paid to providing a range of economic activities and employment opportunities to all classes of people, there is a clear emphasis on “investors and professionals,” and providing them with “a very high quality of life (comparable with any developed European city)” (emphasis given in the original Concept Note).
Of course, 24x7 electricity supply, quality water supply and recycling, clean air, good educational and health care services, entertainment and sports facilities, dependable security, high speed interconnectivity, fast and efficient urban mobility as promised for “smart cities” are not attributes specific to smart cities but should be available in all Indian cities, not only in some select areas supposedly providing “European-standard” lifestyles. But the Concept Note makes doubly clear that the 100 “smart cities” in India are being set up as special and isolated luxury zones for upper-income groups and the corporate class, what are known as “gated localities,” by promising “simple and transparent on-line business and public services that make it easy to establish a business and run it efficiently without any bureaucratic hassles.” There is token acceptance that skilled labour too would be required but, other than that, the promised “smart cities” appear to be residential and commercial islands for higher-income professionals and corporates with provision for some essential workers and service providers. It is left unclear if the latter will reside within or outside the “smart cities.”
            Evidence that ‘smart cities” in India are being conceived as rich enclaves is available in the few examples of “smart cities” already initiated even before the Scheme came into being. The first example is the Gujarat International Fin-Tec (GIFT) city, a “smart” greenfield business district located between Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar, initiated when PM Modi was Chief Minister of Gujarat. GIFT is visualized as a global financial services hub with state-of-the-art communications, infrastructure and transport links to the main city. Wave City near Ghaziabad on the periphery of Delhi is another example, a greenfield up-market residential township being built by a private real estate developer in partnership with IBM. 
            This elitist orientation of “smart cities” is also illuminated by other indications. While high quality education and health services are spoken of, much of these are expected to be in the private sector, including a 50-100 acre “medi city” in each “smart city” for tertiary health care. All services are expected to be provided by private or PPP entities operating on full cost recovery including capital costs, a long-time favourite neo-liberal World Bank prescription. Presumably, the urban poor will look after themselves outside the “smart cities” which have no place for them.  
                       
Against best practices           Whereas the government has been making much of giving States a lead role in the process of selection and project formulation, it is clear that the Centre is the main if not sole arbiter, especially since it controls the funds.
Funding itself is curiously structured. Although the “smart cities” as envisaged are necessarily infrastructure heavy, the plan envisages that most infrastructure will be taken up either through private investment or through PPPs, which the State governments and concerned urban local bodies (ULBs) will raise, with the Central Government’s contributions in the form of Viability Gap Support. This despite the PPP models in urban infrastructure having totally failed in India so far, for example in the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), UPA’s predecessor to the AMRUT Scheme. Changing the name from Jawaharlal Nehru to Atal Behari Vajpayee will not change this reality!
Besides burdening the ULBs with this onerous responsibility, there is little or no empowerment, capacity building and decentralization of responsibility to ULBs, internationally considered to the cornerstone of modern urban development, and which lies behind the many success stories in China or the smart cities of Barcelona, Singapore, Seoul or Yokohoma. 
In contrast, in India all “smart cities” Projects will be implemented by special purpose vehicles (SPVs) manned by unelected bureaucrats and consultants, by-passing the elected Urban Local Bodies and directly undermining the 74th Amendment to the Constitution aimed at strengthening democratic and representative urban governance, just as the 73rd Amendment supports Panchayat Raj Institutions.
           
Flawed Concept of Urbanization                In fact, the very perspective of the present dispensation on urbanization is deeply flawed. The “smart cities” Concept Note argues that urban centres are “engines of growth,” and that if previous governments had realized this, India would have been a developed country by now.
            The Note repeats the usual correlations between increasing rates of urbanization and GDP growth, and projects that urban areas will contribute 75% of GDP by 2030 as against 60% currently. But is growth really caused by urban growth? There is substantial evidence to indicate that urbanization and rural-urban migration in India result from complex processes involving downturn in returns from agriculture, rural distress, industrialization and job creation in or near urban centres. The present government seems to believe in urbanization as an end in itself, as shown in its earlier aggressive push for a Land Acquisition Bill when it argued that agriculture was in serious decline and farmers would be better-off selling their lands and giving up agriculture altogether, and presumably moving to urban areas. But will there be decent jobs in urban areas, especially in big cities, for all rural migrants?
Job creation has stagnated in India even in periods of high GDP growth at the peak of the liberalization wave, and “jobless growth” is a well-recognized phenomenon especially when advanced technologies are involved. If there is rural distress, should that not be addressed directly, instead of condemning farming as a lost cause and advising farmers to move to cities? For all the rapid urbanization in India, projections show that even in 2050, as much as 50% of India’s population will be in rural areas. Will this population have no future?
No doubt urbanization is increasing at a fast pace in India. But a large part of the expansion of urban population is taking place in small towns. There are over 6,000 towns including Census Towns in India, in which much of the rural migration has occurred, and the vast majority of which are completely ignored by the “smart cities” and AMRUT Schemes. In India, the real problems in its urban centres are poor infrastructure including garbage and sanitation, sewage, drinking water supply, poor housing and lack of employment opportunities. Even in Delhi, India’s capital, close to half of urban households do not have sewage connections or piped drinking water, only half of domestic and industrial waste waters are treated before discharge into the Yamuna, and around half the population live in slums and unauthorized settlements. The “smart cities” programme ignores all these and instead chooses to build a few isolated enclaves for upper-income sections in major urban centres as glamour projects for the rich.
The 2014 UN Report on World Urbanization Prospects notes that rapid and unplanned urbanization has in fact led to “urban sprawl, high levels of pollution and environmental degradation, together with unsustainable patterns of production and consumption patterns,” thus compelling a global agenda to forge a new model of urbanization “that integrates all facets of sustainable development, to promote equity, welfare and shared prosperity in an urbanizing world development.”
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CASE STUDY 2: BULLET TRAINS                    Another glamour project of the present government is the introduction of Bullet Trains in India. Again, on the face of it, it appears unobjectionable. Bullet Trains are symbols of a country’s development, only developed countries have them and the few developing countries that have them, such as China and Turkey, thus have bragging rights and claims to developed country status. What is wrong if India also has these ultra-modern, prestigious trains and thereby provide the travelling public a world-class travel experience which will also save huge amounts of time for passengers, especially business people, thus giving a boost to productivity and the economy as a whole.
However, a closer examination shows that it involves enormous expenditure, will serve only a tiny proportion of rail passengers and, to boot, will have economically non-viable high fares, almost certainly calling for subsidies for a better-off class of passengers. And this will be at the cost of better amenities and services for the overwhelming bulk of ordinary lower-income and middle-class rail passengers, who will continue to be provided slow and poor services on ageing infrastructure and overcrowded railway lines, even while the government never gets tired of bemoaning a lack of funds for improving infrastructure and the subsidies being extended to this class of passengers.
Once again, a lopsided developmental model following the neo-liberal paradigm is being put forward which benefits a very small section, less than 10%, of those at the top of the pyramid while ignoring the interests of over 90% of the people.
            Let us examine the Bullet Trains programme more closely, in the light of well-documented international experience.

Proposed High Speed Rail Projects in India                       A favourite idea of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, also highlighted in the BJP Manifesto, is to introduce High Speed Rail (HSR) in India, more popularly known as “Bullet Trains” after the original name (dangan resha) of the world’s first HSR service, the Japanese Shinkansen.
The longer-term plan of the present government is not just one or two small stretches as has been contemplated off and on over the years, but to build HSR corridors over a vast 6000km long “diamond quadrilateral” going around the country, somewhat like the “golden quadrilateral” of highways initiated by the Vajpayee-led NDA government in the late nineties. This would be a huge and dramatic infrastructure project that would loudly project India’s national pride and announce the country’s march towards the front ranks of advanced economies. In the shorter term, a pilot project in the Mumbai-Ahmedabad sector has been approved and is at an advanced stage of planning, while a second, longer Delhi-Varanasi corridor linking the national capital to the Prime Minister’s parliamentary constituency is slated to be taken up next, with a possible extension up to Kolkata.
            Many transportation experts, financial institutions, sections of the financial press and even renowned HSR engineering companies have expressed their scepticism about these projects based on assessments of costs, ridership, possible ticket prices, viability and societal benefits.
            First we should be clear about the technical definition of Bullet Trains or High Speed Rail (HSR). Although HSR is defined in multiple ways in different countries, the most widely accepted term defines HSR as embracing three specific aspects namely Speed (maximum speed of at least 250 kmph, special track and special operating conditions especially locomotives and carriages designed integrally with infrastructure for complete compatibility, safety and high-quality performance.
            In India, therefore, HSR would involve completely new tracks and related infrastructure including stations, protective structures on both sides of the new tracks to prevent human or animal intrusions, new locomotives and carriages, and new operational systems. A “diamond quadrilateral” of new HSR track would involve huge quantity of land acquisition, massive investments, and would necessitate high frequency of trains, high ridership and high tariffs for ensuring financial viability. Precisely because these conditions are very difficult to meet, many countries including developed nations have not been able to afford or set up High Speed Rail.
            If India is adopting HSR because developed countries have it, the international experience itself provides enough evidence as to why HSR is a bad choice for India, and will always be a luxury project serving the rich that India can ill afford.

International experience       The best-known HSR networks, and most cited as examples for other countries to follow, are the pioneering Japanese shinkansen, the well-established European national and transnational networks, and recently the Chinese HSR which has dramatically expanded to cover almost 20,000km over a decade and a half!
            Japan’s bullet train service  was introduced in the densely populated industrial and employment corridor between Tokyo and Osaka where more than 45 million people lived. The distance of 515km is today covered in less than 3 hours with just 2 stops and a top speed of 320 kmph. The service runs more than 13 trains per hour with 16 bogies, a higher passenger load and frequency than anywhere else in the world. The Tokyo-Osaka line alone carries around 150 million passengers per year, and is eminently suitable for Japan’s densely populated, high-income industrialized society with most population centres along thin strips.    
            Experience in Europe and elsewhere have broadly borne out these basic characteristics of viability, namely medium distances, high-density business routes, fares competitive with air fares, relatively high spending capacity, and high frequency services.
The French TGV (for grand vitesse or high speed) was started in the Paris-Lyon stretch, again one of the most crowded intercity lines in France. The 415 km route is uncomfortably long for road travel and too short for affordable air travel. The route has relatively low running costs due to its reliance mainly on nuclear power, as was the case in Japan till the Fukushima disaster. The French service, like most HSR services worldwide, has been heavily subsidized in one way or another, with passengers especially initially lured by promotional tariffs equivalent to normal trains.
Not all countries would or can adopt such a course. The UK’s diesel-electric HSR has remained confined to tiny stretches, since privatization even of the conventional rail network has pushed fares high and passenger load factors to new lows.
            Spain’s HSR network, slated to be the largest in Europe by 2030, is based on the idea that 90 percent of the country’s population would be living within 50km of an HSR station. The country’s current economic problems, high unemployment and falling incomes are, however, holding the programme back. In South Korea, with both highways and conventional railway lines showing serious congestion in the 1970s, HSR services were launched in 2004 on the busy and densely populated Seoul-Busan corridor between the country’s two largest cities representing over 75 percent of the population and around 70 percent of both freight and passenger traffic.
            The US started a single route HSR service early, along with the UK, but further progress has stalled since then in a country dominated by road and air travel, and with public investment in infrastructure declining sharply over the past several decades due to neo-liberal policies. Currently, a huge debate is underway on the desirability of HSR services in two high population-density, high-employment corridors of Los Angeles-San Francisco and the Philadelphia-Boston-New York-Washington DC corridor with several stops and offshoots on the way. If these two economic clusters were countries, they would each rank in the top 10 nations of the world! The California proposal won public approval in 2008 with 52% votes but with serious opposition from conservatives opposed to the large estimated public expenditure of USD 58 billion (Rs.360,000 crores).
            Of course, all these norms appear to collapse in the case of China which seems to defy most generalized developmental or economic assumptions. China’s first operational line opened in 2003, but poor performance led China to change direction and import technologies from France, Germany and Japan with transfer of technology agreements. At an astonishing pace, by 2011 China had the world’s longest HSR network covering around 8,400km and beating Japan’s record passenger load!
But standard seats on the 2,200km route from Beijing to Shenzhen in the dynamic south-eastern coastal export and manufacturing zone cost around US$ 144 (Rs.8,500), close to air fares, and business class seats are about 3 times more! Fares have had to be reduced many times, even to below cost prices, to meet purchasing power of the people. Still, working class migrants going on seasonal visits to their home towns apparently prefer cheaper ordinary trains even if they take much longer.
China’s HSR has come at an extremely high cost of approximately US$ 20 billion (Rs.1,14,700 crores) for a 1,000km route. China’s Railways are reported to be struggling with a US$ 318 billion debt (Rs.18,80,134 crores) and an annual loss of around US$ 1.46 billion. No other country, certainly not India, has such deep pockets!

Re-think Indian HSR                        According to the feasibility reports prepared by international consultants, HSR in India is expected to cost around Rs.250 crore per km. The roughly 415km Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor is expected to cost around Rs.86,000 crore, so we can just imagine what the “diamond quadrilateral” project connecting the 4 major metros would cost.
More importantly, passenger tariffs are expected to be around Rs.8 per km or Rs.3200 for this short Mumbai-Ahmedabad and services should cover many trains running every hour to be financially viable. With even air fares of under Rs.2000 in this sector, these numbers clearly do not suggest viability. Most probably, therefore, fares will be subsidized under the guise of “initial promotional offers” or “viability gap funding” (VGF).
Such over-ambition in favour of some vanity projects designed to show-off advanced projects although only benefiting elite sections, like showing off 5-star hotels, have come crashing in other developing countries too. Argentina embarked on a bold HSR venture in 2006 linking its three largest cities Buenos Aires, Rosario and Cordoba over a 720km line. In 2008, President Kirchner proclaimed that the country would soon be known for “development and modernity.”  Fortunately for the country, the project was shelved before it could swallow up much-needed development funds. Argentina has now taken up a revised Chinese-funded project for a major upgrade and renovation of the national rail network, without bullet trains, but with “high-performance” trains with average speeds of around 160 kmph. The project will be far less expensive and will impact the entire rail network instead of only a few segments.
            India would do well to think along similar lines. India is already experimenting with medium-speed trains running at 200 kmph maximum speeds on existing tracks. However, with current tracks getting saturated with bumper-to-bumper traffic along trunk routes, India could also think of a “quadrilateral” of new parallel tracks along the routes connecting the major metros, which could serve high-tariff premium services which existing tracks would be de-congested and serve the vast majority of passengers.
All this comes at a time when emphasis is being placed on making rail passenger services viable and self-supporting, with major restructuring being planned for the Railways including unbundling, privatization, and independent regulators fixing no doubt higher fares.  90% of railway passengers travel on 2nd Class Sleeper or lower classes and deserve good quality services for long distance journeys. There are already huge noises being made that the financial health of the Railways is suffering due to subsidies for this class of passengers. Clear signals are being sent out that rail fares will be raised, and a beginning has already been made with so-called “surge prices” for some premium trains. Huge popular pressure needs to be mounted to ensure that lower-income groups, the rural masses and the salaried middle-classes are not burdened by a spiralling rise in prices for rail services in the days to come.
In this scenario, non-viable and elite-oriented Bullet trains which will inevitably call for subsidies of one kind or another, clearly do not find a place and should be withdrawn.   
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CASE STUDY 3: REGIONAL AIRPORTS AND AIR SERVICES                 The last of the three Case Studies we are looking at relate to the new civil aviation policy that calls for government-supported promotion of new regional airports and subsidized regional air services.  Another example of elite-oriented “development,” with public expenditure and subsidies to boot, whereas in direct contrast basic necessities of infrastructure and essential services such as health and education required by the common people are being denied or withdrawn by the government in the name of shortage of funds or austerity.
            Many people may ask: why are we discussing something as remote from the lives of common people as regional airports and air services? Surely, there must be more important things to discuss, which touch most of our lives? Even Urbanization and Rail Services impact on the lives of the common citizen and discussions of Smart Cities and Bullet Trains are therefore understandable. But why discuss obviously elitist infrastructure like airports? The answer is that this precisely shows that the model of “development” being followed by this government is pro-elite rather than pro-people.

New Civil Aviation Policy                 The recently announced National Civil Aviation Policy (NCAP), much touted for being the first ever policy framed for this sector, is another such pro-rich policy.
Two aspects in the NAPC stand out and are discussed here. First, an explicit commitment to invest State effort and public funds, including subsidies, on expanding the civil aviation customer base and related infrastructure, with the perspective that this will have a multiplier effect on the economy and will benefit the common man. Second, the idea that a set of fiscal, procedural and regulatory incentives will open the floodgates of private sector investment especially FDI into sub-sectors that are not doing well, even though the real reason behind the sluggishness is that, in the face of persistent private sector reluctance and lack of capacity, the State has been and continues to be unwilling to directly apply itself to the task. Two contradictory impulses are at work behind these policy directions, both based on fundamental misconceptions, and neither of which will yield the desired results. 

Regional Connectivity Scheme                     The big argument in NCAP is that civil aviation has a multiplier effect on the economy, generating 3.25 times economic growth per unit of investment, and over 6 times the number of jobs compared to average GDP growth, that too especially for “semi-skilled and un-skilled workers” if NCAP is to be believed, presumably such as porters, loaders and taxi-drivers. It further argues that, if the estimated 300 million strong middle-class buys just 1 air ticket a year, this would mean a more than 4-fold increase! The Policy therefore seeks to “take to take flying to the masses by making it affordable and convenient… especially on regional routes” which are currently under-served. This is pure myth and serves only to mislead the public that this pro-rich expenditure is for the benefit of the common man who, of course, does not travel by air. NCAP argues that this potential calls for a massive and rapid expansion in air passenger and cargo traffic, which in turn “will require concessions by the Central and State Governments and Airport Operators.”
            Through a new Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS), the Policy seeks to open up air connectivity to existing non-functional or new airports in small towns and cities on hitherto un-served or under-served regional routes.  The Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) would provide subsidy or Viability Gap Funding (VGF) for a “significant part of the capacity,” (some reports say this could be around 50 percent) of such routes of around 500-600km distance or 1 hour flight. Fares would be capped at Rs.2500 per seat, and a host of other concessions and incentives would be offered apart from fare subsidies.
            Currently, commercial operations are underway in 75 out of a total of 450 airstrips or airports in the country, some of which are being used for the odd charters, flying clubs or other purposes. RCS seeks to revive and upgrade selected airstrips/ airports on the basis of demand by airlines, with MoCA pledging to meet up to 80 percent of the estimated Rs.50-100 crore cost with State Governments meeting the balance 20 percent, the ratio being 90:10 in case of the North-East, “without insisting on financial viability” (emphasis added). State Governments will be required to provide all necessary land free, levy only 1 percent VAT on aviation fuel, reduce excise duties etc etc.
            The subsidy would come from a yet-to-be-specified levy on all air passengers travelling on trunk routes.
            There are many issues related to whether this scheme will work at all, as discussed below. But the bottom line is that the Government will pay for upgrading new airports, and will subsidize the airlines and passengers by contributing to around half the passengers’ fares and capping them. Corporate circles are overjoyed, airline shares have shot up and the pink press is overwhelmingly congratulatory. That is paradoxical indeed, considering that the corporate sector and pro-liberalization commentators in general have always cried hoarse against subsidies and government “hand-outs,” especially when it comes to the masses, for instance the 90 percent of railway passengers who travel by second-sleeper or lower classes cross-subsidy for whom has long been begrudged as a drag on profitability and the economy. But subsidies for the rich and for private airlines are no problem, and viability of airports is of no concern! 

Not workable                         However, despite the fond hopes of a State-led and State-subsidized expansion of air passenger traffic, the idea itself will simply not work, ironically because of contemporary market realities.
            Of the 75 airports currently in operation, several are already non-viable, have very slim passenger traffic or aircraft movement, and really have little to justify their continued functioning. For example, the once prestigious Mysore airport in Karnataka’s former capital and second city, today has no flights. The public sector Indian Airlines heroically kept up heavily loss-making flights, dwindling to a single flight a week, to Mysore which the Airports Authority of India (AAI) ran at a loss for several years. Vijay Mallya’s Kingfisher too ran some flights to Mysore out of hubris. All to no avail, and Mysore Airport is today shut. So too is the airport at Shimla. Not enough demand, with many alternative modes of travel available, even for the well-heeled passenger. Only state-owned Air India today flies to Kullu a few days a week with an astonishingly high fare of Rs.9,500 for a flight of just over one hour! Can this be subsidized to Rs.2500? Will any subsidy revive Mysore or Shimla airports?
Back in 1994, under so-called Route Dispersal Guidelines (RDG), the pre-merger state-owned monopoly carrier Indian Airlines was ordered to run services on what were then loss-making routes to the North-East, the Islands, J&K and some Tier-II and Tier-III cities. In many cases, these locations were remote, with virtually no other connectivity to the mainland or were considered to be of tourist or strategic importance such as Jaipur, Agra or Bagdogra. These services were cross-subsidized by 12 trunk routes connecting the metros and major cities, a subject of much criticism in the LPG era. Today, many of these routes have vindicated the decision to cross-subsidize them, and have multiple daily flights including by private airlines with no need for subsidy, major airports in the North-East having over 2,000 daily passenger movements. But will the same apply to airports other than these?
            Of the current 75 operational airports, around 25 even today cater to less than 250 passenger movements (in-coming and out-going together) per day, or roughly 3-4 aircraft movements daily!  And this includes large or prominent locations such as Khajuraho, Allahabad, Gorakhpur, Gwalior, Agra and Kanpur. Fact of the matter is that the demand is limited, other convenient and affordable means of transport are available, and subsidies are either not needed or will make no sense.  
            It is highly doubtful if a credible list of locations could be drawn up that are so remote or so strategically located that they need or can justify the Regional Connectivity Scheme drawn up under the NCAP? Or is this just wishful thinking, or will they be just vanity projects favoured by Chief Ministers or local MPs or other VIPs? Unlike the RDGs of yore, there is unlikely to be sound justification for any significant list of deserving airports or routes. And even if subsidy were to be given, they would be very unlikely to justify themselves a few years down the line.
            So here is a case of the State going out of its way to subsidize transport services for the better-off, going against the prevailing market-governed wisdom, with little justification in terms of objective criteria and fewer rewards even in the long run.




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